India will not sign the proposed bilateral trade agreement with the United States unless a framework is in place that gives Indian exports a clear tariff edge over rival countries, and ministry sources now suggest the deal is unlikely to conclude this year. The message signals that New Delhi is holding out for a stronger negotiating position rather than a hurried breakthrough.

The stance, articulated by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, indicates that tariff parity is no longer enough; India wants a measurable comparative advantage before moving ahead. That could delay closure even if talks remain active, because the real test will be whether Washington is willing to offer India terms better than those extended to competing suppliers.

Officials familiar with the process say the current pace of negotiations does not point to an agreement in 2026. The sticking points appear to be less about intent and more about the structure of benefits, especially for export-heavy sectors seeking predictability and pricing support.

For now, the takeaway is that the deal may stay alive politically, but not necessarily commercially. Until India secures a framework that protects its export competitiveness, the agreement is likely to remain in limbo.